The New Nation
Our foreign policy advocates for friendship to all and malice to none, which also dictates our strategic and security outlook. So, one should not be surprised that Bangladesh is very reluctant to view her neighbours as a source of security threats despite the fact that she is having some bilateral issues with her neighbours, particularly India, and Myanmar due to their aggressive policy, in the shape of land/maritime border demarcation, illegal migration, refugee influx, illegal drugs and small arms trade, and human trafficking. Despite our policy of harmonious and amicable coexistence with our neighbours, we should not be oblivious of the need for a peaceful and stable border and therefore we should take cognizance of factors that could create threats to our national security.
In this thread we will confine our discussion to possible security threats from Myanmar that could lead both the nations to a low intensity, or even to a high intensity conflict and strategies that Bangladesh should use to reduce the possibility of such conflicts, or to achieve a desired end in the conflict in case a military confrontation is unavoidable.
First let us examine the source of bilateral irritants between Bangladesh and Myanmar that could give rise to conflicts between the two neighbours:
1. Maritime Border Demarcation: Being surrounded by India and Myanmar, Bangladesh can hardly overemphasize the need to demarcate its maritime boundary on just and equitable basis to assert her sovereignty over its resource rich EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) and beyond through which almost 90% of its external trade is conducted. Failure in delineating maritime border may cause Bangladesh to be reduced to a mere landlocked country and lose its strategic significance and relevance in South Asian context.
2. Rohingya Refugee issue: Myanmar has a poor human rights record for suppressing and depriving its minority communities of basic rights and privileges and as a result of this thousands of Muslim Rohingya refugees cross into Bangladesh territory to escape the atrocities committed by the military junta. Bangladesh with the help of international community has tried to resolve this issue through diplomatic channel but due to Myanmarese military junta's stubbornness, the refugee problem could not be resolved and this is creating security, economic, and social problems in the country. Military junta's refusal to recognize Rohyngias as citizens and continuous attempt to push them inside Bangladesh territory may lead to a conflict situation if not properly handled.
3. Illegal small arms trade: Illegal small arms trade is a flourishing business along Bangladesh-Myanmar border despite all the efforts by Bangladesh Rifles to curb such activities in the border areas. If Myanmar fails to cooperate in stopping illegal arms trade in the border areas, criminals and terrorist groups may create threats to internal law and order situation of Bangladesh.
4. Illegal drugs trade: Because of long military rule, self imposed isolation, and economic embargo by the international community, the military junta relies heavily on poppy cultivation and drug trading for revenues. Being near the notorious 'golden triangle'--a heaven for illegal drug dealings--- Bangladesh faces an imminent danger and this cannot be tackled without full cooperation, which is unlikely to be forthcoming, from Myanmar.
5. Unfriendly NASAKA: The Myanmarese border security force known as NASAKA is a matter of concern for Bangladesh. This particular organization is involved in all sorts of human rights violation, illegal trading, killing and whatnot. Unless NASAKA is turned into a professional force guided by a specific set of code of conduct, a border conflict may break out between them and BDR because of the irrational behaviour of the former jeopardizing stability in the 200 km long border shared by both the neighbours.
Analysis of the strategic landscape
Now let us analyze the strategic landscape to understand the potential players, who might get involved if a military conflict breaks out between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Myanmar: As I have explained already that Myanmar is a pariah state and has little influence over the international community to form an opinion in favour of them. They are under heavy economic and military embargo for human rights violation and lack of respect for democracy. Having said that we should not lose sight of growing relation between China and Myanmar and it must be taken into consideration by Bangladesh and international community because China as a regional power will play an important role in any conflict between countries adjacent to her border . We will talk about China in just a moment but let me add that the Myanmarese military has been completely revamped with the help of Chinese assistance. New divisions have been raised with supporting units and hardware to make it one of the largest militaries in South East Asia. As per Internet and print media, Myanmar has received huge quantity of military hardware including artillery pieces, tanks, APCs, trucks, high speed jet fighters, naval vessels from China, Israel, and other nations. They have improved logistic backup to carryout sustained military operations within their border. They have also gained enormous experience in counter-insurgency in the last 20 years. But their weakness lies in their fragile economy and isolation from the international community, which, I believe, put them in a disadvantageous position to achieve a desired end in the war against Bangladesh.
China: China has a long term strategic interest in Myanmar due, mainly, to latter's convenient geographic location, which the Chinese navy intends to use in its pursuit to advance toward the Indian Ocean, and huge energy reserve. Along with a number of listening posts in the Myanmarese sea territory, the Chinese have also invested heavily in developing sea ports in Myanmar with repair , maintenance, and fuel facilities for the Chinese navy. So, China views Myanmar as a strategic partner, which is the gateway to the Indian Ocean and a cheap source of hydrocarbon to meet its burgeoning demand for energy.
As a permanent member of U.N. Security council, China has the veto power that can be used as a stick against Western pressure to discipline the military junta of Myanmar. But whether or not China will use the veto power is subject to how they perceive their relation with Bangladesh, which has seen a steady rise in the last 30 years, vis-a-vis Myanmar. The strategic analysts believe that China acknowledges the strategic significance of Bangladesh due to its peculiar geographic location, which cuts the North Eastern region off from the rest of India and acts as a bridge between SAARC and ASEAN, and offers access to Indian Ocean via the Bay of Bengal. The growing Chinese economic and military assistance to Bangladesh is a testament to latter's strategic significance to China and its military. So in the end, China may end up being a peace broker between Bangladesh and Myanmar to stop them from starting a conflict, or stop the conflict from escalating and keep the Western powers at bay both to safeguard its strategic interest in Myanmar and Bangladesh, and to end the conflict in Chinese terms.
Other UNSC members: In any conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar, America will side with Bangladesh simply because both the nations believe in democratic values, freedom of speech and respect for human rights, and both are partners against war on terror. On the other hand, America is one of the staunchest critics of the Myanmarese military junta for its lack of respect for human rights and democracy. Americans, themselves, have already imposed an economic and arms embargo on Myanmar, and persuaded other Western allies to do the same to put pressure on the military junta to restore democracy in the country. So, in a conflict situation, Bangladesh will find America on its side but Myanmar will face even more isolation for attacking a democratic country.
Britain, and France, both seeking a regime change to restore democracy in Myanmar, will also join America to support Bangladesh in its fight against Myanmarese military junta.
Russia, being one of the few countries that supported the independence movement of Bangladesh, and having a close defense relation with Myanmar, may find itself in a difficult diplomatic situation and may only offer itself as a peace broker to maintain neutrality in the conflict situation.
Other players
India: India views Myanmar as an important country for the success of its 'look east policy', and as a good source of cheap energy reserve to meet its rising energy demand. India is also seeking to cultivate deep economic and defense relations with the military junta to counterbalance Chinese influence in Myanmar for its own strategic advantage. At the same time, the policymakers of New Delhi are aware of their role in the independence movement of Bangladesh and its strategic significance in the security of North East India. So, like Russia, India may also seek neutrality in the conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar and play the role of a peace broker to end the conflict.
Arab countries: Being the 3rd largest Muslim country in the world, Bangladesh is expected to get overwhelming moral and even logistical support from the Arab nations.
Strategic objectives of Bangladesh
1. To resolve any dispute through dialogue and avoid the possibility of a military confrontation
2. In case a military confrontation is unavoidable, limit the scope of confrontation to minimize the loss of lives and properties
3. In case the conflict takes the shape of a full scale war, break the will of the Myanmarese military to fight by inflicting heavy damage upon its men, machine, and economy
Strategies to follow
1. To launch an intense diplomatic effort both bilateral, and multilateral, involving China, and the U.N.
2. To use BDR just to repel sporadic border incursions and keep the army on a stand by mode, and continue with diplomatic efforts to diffuse tension
3. To create a naval blockade against Myanmar to take control of its commercial shipping lanes and use the full military might to force the aggressor to retreat, and ask for help from America and its allies, and the Muslim countries, to achieve a desired end in the conflict.
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